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Russia's war in Ukraine appears to have escalated, raising speculation that President Vladimir Putin's mistake could prove to be his downfall. Many pundits and experts predict that frustration over the cost of the war and the imposition of economic sanctions could lead to the collapse of his government.
Putin Needs Killed
"Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine will cost him and his friends," David Rothkopf said in the Daily Beast. "If history is any guide, his excesses and miscalculations, his weaknesses as a strategist, and his character flaws will be scrutinized."
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But what events could actually bring Putin down? and what they may become in the near future.
Learn about the history behind the conflict and Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions for the war.
A Russian invasion would probably lead to a confrontation with the nuclear world powers. It destabilizes the region and terrorizes Ukrainian citizens. Inflation, It could also affect gas prices and the global economy.
The United States and its European allies have responded to Putin's aggression with unprecedented sanctions, but for good reason have no plans to send troops to Ukraine.
How Putin Controls Russia
The best research on how dictators fall points to two possible scenarios: a military coup or a popular uprising. During the Cold War, coups were a common method of forcing dictators from office - think Argentina's Juan Perón fell in 1955. But since the 1990s, the way dictators are removed has changed. Coups are on the decline, while popular uprisings such as the Arab Spring uprisings and "color revolutions" in the former Soviet Union are on the rise.
For all the speculation about Putin's loss of power, Even after the disastrous first invasion of Ukraine, such events are particularly unlikely in Russia. This is in no small part because Putin has done his best to prepare them.
Over the past two decades, the Russian leader and his allies have structured almost every major part of the Russian state with an eye toward limiting threats to the regime. Putin arrests or kills opposition leaders; He instilled fear in the masses and made the leadership status of the nation dependent on his goodwill for their continued prosperity. The regime's ability to ramp up repression during the current crisis—using tactics ranging from mass arrests at protests to shutting down opposition media to cutting off social media platforms—demonstrates the regime's ability to respond to anti-war protests.
"Putin has been preparing for this event for a long time, and he's put it together to make sure he's not vulnerable," said Adam Casey, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Michigan who studies the history of coups and coups. studied in Russia. Former Communist Party.
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At the same time, authoritarianism and Russian political elites are not quite ready to prevent Putin's downfall. It's impossible, it's impossible. The experts I spoke with generally believe that the invasion of Ukraine was a strategic mistake that increased the risk of a coup and a revolution.
"[before the war]; The risk of both threats is almost zero. And now the stakes are certainly higher for both," said Brian Taylor, a professor at Syracuse University and author of The Code of Putinism.
The Ukrainians and their Western sympathizers cannot agree on Putin's case. But if the war is even worse for the Russian president. History tells us that even the capitalist dictators have ways of clinging to power.
In a recent report on Fox News, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) offered what he saw as a solution to the war in Ukraine - for someone in the Russian military to remove Vladimir Putin through an assassination or coup. . "The only way to get rid of this guy in Russia is to get rid of this guy," the senator argued.
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He should meet his expectations. A rebellion against Putin is more likely than before the invasion of Ukraine, but the opposite will take longer.
Naunihal Singh is one of the world's leading experts on military coups. In his 2017 book Seizing Power, statistical analysis; Using game theory and historical case studies, he tries to figure out what causes coups and what makes them likely to succeed.
Singh found that coup attempts are more likely in low-income countries, and that most coup attempts in low-income countries have governments that are not democratic or fully autocratic; Neither of these scenarios sit well with modern Russia, a middle-income country with a strong authoritarian regime that has not experienced a coup attempt since the early 90s.
But at the same time, wars like Putin's can bring exactly the same discontent and fear that other countries have seen in coups. "There are reasons for Putin to be more concerned here." Singh said, referring to the coups in Mali in 2012 and Burkina Faso earlier this year. In fact, a 2017 civil war study found that coups are more likely to occur during conflicts when governments face strong opponents — suggesting that wartime deaths and defeats actually increase the chance of military rebellion.
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In Singh's view, the conflict in Ukraine is fueling a coup in Russia for two reasons: it could weaken the military leadership's loyalty to Putin, and it could give him an unusual opportunity to mount a campaign against him.
The motive of Russian officials for the coup was simple: the expensive Ukrainian campaign was unpopular. Even key members of the military were personally threatened.
Top Russian journalists and experts warn that Putin is surrounded by a bubble of sleazy sycophants who feed his nationalist obsession and tell him only what he wants to hear. Believing that the Ukrainian military would offer little resistance, this small group devised an invasion plan that allowed Russia to quickly capture Kyiv and install a puppet government.
This plan underestimated Ukrainian resolve and overestimated Russian military capability, resulting in significant Russian casualties and a failed early push into the Ukrainian capital. Since then, Russian forces have been embroiled in a slow and costly conflict, with horrific bombings of populated areas. International sanctions are much more severe than the Kremlin expected, affecting the Russian economy and especially the ability to punish its elites abroad.
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According to Farida Rustamova, a Russian correspondent in the Kremlin, senior civilian officials in the Russian government are already dissatisfied with the war and its economic consequences. The few who were informed in advance of the war plans could only imagine the feeling among military officers, many of whom were now tasked with massacring Ukrainian citizens.
And this is what can often fuel a coup: personal insecurity among high-ranking generals and intelligence officials. According to Andrei Soldatov, a Russia expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank, Putin is punishing high-ranking FSB officials for early mistakes in the war. Soldatov's sources say that Putin has placed the head of the foreign intelligence branch of the FSB, Sergeev Sidor (as his deputy), under house arrest.
Reports like this are difficult to verify. But following Singh's predictions that poor performance in wars generally leads autocrats to blame someone, and the fear of punishment may convince some in Russia's security elite to protect Putin as the best way to protect themselves.
Soldiers of the Rosgvardiya (Russian National Guard) detain a protester in Moscow against the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Alexander Nemenov / AFP via Getty Images
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"I don't think Putin will attack them," he said. But they still live in fear and humiliation," Singh said. "They fear for their future."
The conflict raises disgruntled officials. In authoritarian countries like Russia, generals don't always have many opportunities to talk to each other without fear of surveillance or informants. The wars changed that somewhat.
Now the generals are in the room with the key players. They now have very good reasons to avoid NATO and US surveillance," Singh explained.
That being said, the coup is hard to topple. The Russian security situation in particular is a worrying one.
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